2025-07-11
SenovaTech Team at CPHI 2025 i
Release Time: 2025-08-07
News Source: Jiemian News
Author: SENOVA—Lucas
Novo Nordisk Slashes 2025 Outlook as GLP-1 Market Shifts from Blue Ocean to Red Ocean
On July 29, Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk announced a downward revision of its full-year 2025 performance guidance, cutting both sales growth and operating profit growth forecasts by at least 5 percentage points. The news triggered a single-day stock plunge of over 20% in its U.S.-listed shares, wiping out approximately $60 billion in market value—the company’s steepest one-day drop in nearly a decade. This warning reflects a broader industry shift as the once-booming GLP-1 market transitions from a blue ocean to a fiercely competitive red ocean.
The Meteoric Rise and Slowdown of Semaglutide
Semaglutide’s success has been a textbook case in the pharmaceutical industry. After securing approval for diabetes in 2017 and weight loss in 2021—amplified by celebrity endorsements like Elon Musk—its global sales skyrocketed from $275 million in 2018 to $27.37 billion in 2024, a near 100-fold surge in just seven years. However, growth has markedly decelerated in the first half of 2024, with year-over-year revenue increases sliding from triple-digit to double-digit percentages, though it remains the top-selling GLP-1 drug.
Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide Gains Ground with Dual-Target Advantage
Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, a GLP-1/GIP dual-target agonist, has demonstrated superior weight-loss efficacy in head-to-head trials against semaglutide. Despite its later approval for obesity, tirzepatide has rapidly gained traction: 2024 sales exceeded $16 billion, with its obesity drug Zepbound contributing nearly $5 billion, narrowing the gap with Novo’s Wegovy ($8 billion in sales).
Lilly’s aggressive capacity expansion and pricing strategies have further strengthened its position. With a market capitalization now nearly four times that of Novo Nordisk, investors are signaling a potential shift in dominance within the GLP-1 arena.
The GLP-1 sector has descended into an "arms race" of intense competition
Target enhancement: Companies like Pfizer and Amgen are developing multi-target drugs combining GLP-1 with glucagon etc., aiming to add differentiated benefits like muscle growth and metabolic improvement beyond weight loss.
Oral formulations: Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide has entered Phase III trials, but faces challenges including low bioavailability and patient compliance issues.
Indication expansion: New therapeutic areas like NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis) and Alzheimer's disease are becoming the next battlegrounds for pharmaceutical companies.
Competition in the domestic market is equally fierce. China currently has over 700 GLP-1-related projects in development, raising concerns about duplicate applications. Ultimately, perhaps only the top five players will remain profitable. While the global weight-loss drug market is projected to exceed $100 billion, pricing pressures, tightening regulations and homogeneous competition will persist long-term. Future competitive advantage will depend on pipeline depth and clinical innovation value rather than reliance on any single blockbuster product.
